Bitcoin’s price has entered a volatile range between $77,400 and $82,000, with bullish momentum fading amid shifting macroeconomic conditions. After briefly reclaiming $90,000 last week, a „sell-the-news” reaction to the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the White House Crypto Summit erased earlier gains, according to a Bitfinex Alpha report.
Adding to the turbulence, $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired last Friday, triggering sharp price swings. Realized volatility surged above 80%, while implied volatility spiked 35.7% as traders hedged their positions ahead of key events.
On-chain data shows widespread losses, with traders recording $818 million in daily realized losses on February 28 and March 4, among the largest daily loss events this cycle. The Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a key metric measuring whether holders are selling at a profit or loss, fell into negative territory for the first time since October 2024. A reading below 1.0 typically signals distress selling, with short-term holders seeing their SOPR at 0.95, the second-largest negative reading of this cycle. If bullish market structure holds, these levels could attract buyers, but extended weakness may signal further downside.
Market Sentiment and Economic Uncertainty
Broader economic uncertainty is also fueling market hesitation. The U.S. job market remains strong, adding 151,000 jobs in February, but the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% amid government job cuts. Wage growth remains robust, but inflationary pressures and trade disruptions pose risks to economic stability. The manufacturing sector is struggling with new tariffs raising production costs and slowing new orders.
Meanwhile, regulatory shifts could reshape the crypto landscape. President Donald Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve now holds 187,000 BTC worth $13 billion, signaling a major policy shift from selling seized Bitcoin to retaining it as a national asset.
Additionally, the administration is pushing for stablecoin legislation by August and plans to end restrictive policies like Operation Choke Point 2.0. In Japan, crypto-friendly tax reforms are being introduced, including a 20% capital gains tax on digital assets and tax deferrals on crypto-to-crypto swaps, potentially encouraging more digital asset investments.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory remains uncertain, with market volatility driven by a mix of regulatory developments, macroeconomic conditions, and investor sentiment. Will Bitcoin stabilize in its current range, or is further downside ahead?
